Tony Blair reminded us last week that we are in a new war against
Islamic terrorists in Iraq. The agonising ordeal of Ken Bigley proves it is
a fight we might lose. The vile manner in which his fate was played out for
the worlds TV cameras showed how a few fanatics can leave an entire nation
powerless. The reaction of some back home, ludicrously suggesting that a
deal be struck with his captors, has shown that the fanatics have already
made inroads into public morale in the UK.
The plight of Ken Bigley left the Prime Minister in an impossible position
but, if he really believes this is a new and deadly was against terrorism,
he must show that he has a plan to win it. Many in the upper echelons of his
government believe that, despite the capture and death of three-quarters of
Osama bin Ladens Al Qaeda henchmen, we are now losing.
Broadly speaking, Al Qaeda wants two things: to drive Western soldiers and
firms from the Middle East and to turn Western European nations into
medieval Islamic states. So far that are not close to achieving either, but
that could change.
Senior officials looking for answers are now avidly reading a new book
called The Beauty Queens Guide to World Peace, by defence expert Dan Plesch.
It reflects the concerns of some senior officials in the Foreign Office and
the Ministry of Defence.
Mr Plesch outlines a worst-case scenario in which the fanatics add to their
supporters, undermine domestic support for Western governments, block access
to Middle-Eastern oil and acquire nuclear weapons.
He compares the growing strength of Al Qaeda and its affiliates with the
success of Manchester United: There are some professionals, some selling
scarves and badges, but many more supporters all around the world backing
the team, needing no instruction as to how to be a supporter, organising
local associations and delighted if Roy Keane asks them for help. And if you
get instructions direct from Alex Ferguson then you do what is asked of
you.
As the team grabs the headlines so other supporters jump on the bandwagon,
carrying out copy-cat attacks.
This is where Mr Bigleys tormentor, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, comes in.
The biggest threat the fanatics may pose is to the oil supplies in both
Iraq and Saudi Arabia, where Al Qaeda is close to toppling the US-backed
monarchy.
Opponents of the war are fond of saying it is all about oil, as if that
were some damning indictment.
What Mr Blair has to admit is that oil underpins our economy, our transport
system and our industry. Ensuring a reliable supply is one of the
fundamental cornerstones of British foreign policy, as it is in every other
Western nation. That is one valid, if unpalatable reason why we went into
Iraq.
If new fundamentalist rulers in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere refused to sell
us oil, prices would quadruple to $160 a barrel, sending petrol to nearly
£5 a gallon before tax, and inflation rocketing to 15 per cent.
The time has come for the Government to invest whatever it takes in British
science and industry to remove our dependence on oil.
This programme should be given the prestige of the Space Race and the
importance of the Manhattan Project that built the atomic bomb, thus
ensuring victory during the Second World War.
In 20 years the UK has switched from coal to oil and gas power. Over then
next 20 years another switch could be made to fuel cell technology and wind
power.
Getting away from oil would save a fortune as well as lives. Some £80
billion of Americas £270 billion annual military budget is devoted to
securing Middle East oil supplies. The average cost to Britain of security
in the Middle East over the past 20 years is about £6 billion a year. Factor
in the £270 billion a year that fluctuating oil prices have cost the West
since the OPEC price hike of the Seventies that led to worldwide recession
and the expense of wind, solar or nuclear power seems a drop in the ocean.
Car manufacturers are already working on electric motors powered by hydrogen
fuel cells. BP has estimated it would cost £30 billion to change US petrol
stations to hydrogen but that is dwarfed by the £50 billion President has
allocated to Iraq reconstruction.
British farmers could produce five per cent of our fuel needs overnight if
they were to produce vegetable oil that works efficiently in diesel engines.
Government investment could help develop photovoltaic cells to break up
water into hydrogen and oxygen, making it feasible to run cars on water.
Without exchanging two words with Al Qaeda, we would remove one of the
planks of their wish list, undercutting support for the fanatics among
Muslim communities the world over. We would also remove the argument of
bleeding hearts at home that our own interference in the Middle East is to
blame for the terror attacks against us.
Tony Blair agreed to war in Iraq because after 9/11 he was not prepared to
tolerate risks to our security abroad. He must now grasp the nettle and
start fighting the war closer to home. If he does not, it will not just be
the Bigley family who suffer.
